Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Most Hated But Least Understood Person On Global Warming

THE BULLY ON THE OTHER SIDE: Richard Lindzen is an atmospheric physicist and professor of meteorology at MIT, a member of the National Academy of Sciences and Al Gore hates him. He is a bully and belittled Bill Nye, "the science guy" on Larry King Live.

You see, he is one of the premier scientist in the world on climatic changes and outwardly expounds his beliefs that Global Warming is a red herring and man has no more effect on global climatic changes than does the butterfly.

He dissents on most world organization findings on global warming and is very distrustful of governments. He has denounced other scientist for their sheep like mentality and alarmist views. He is a very interesting fellow. One who would talk down to a senate committee and bet a bottle of scotch that they are full of it.

He will be in the news often during our climatic journey and when you hear him rant and rave, know that he is considered one of the most learned scientist in the world on the effects of climate change.

Harper's Magazine asserted in an article that he charges oil and coal interests $2500 a day for his consulting services. With his views he could name his price. He denies that dissenting scientist are on the take and claims that "scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen grant funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves labeled as industry stoops, scientific hacks or worse".

He was dismissed as research director of the Royal Dutch Meteorological Society after questioning the scientific underpinnings of global warming. He has lost a lot of friends along this path but continues to stick with it.

When I analyze the myriad of information on global warming I am no closer to an absolute understanding than anybody else. But, as a marketeer, I must take a stance on where the market trend is going and where my money goes. This stance may be void of absolute determination, but as Pascal's bet goes, we will be better off betting on solutions, as the outcome of not working on solutions will have the greater effect if we are wrong.

Alternative energy is but a small insignificant part in our goal to lower carbon emissions today, but will eventually, in the far future, bring temperance to our addiction on fossil fuels. Already the sales of vehicles utilizing battery technology are down. Hydrogen vehicles have no refueling network. The total carbon balance is askew when we take into account the amount of energy used to make batteries and convert biomass to alcohol.

My bet is still on large integrated oil, coal, and a few equipment companies. I have stuck with them for 3 years, and along with metals, have returned 80% profit a year.

Back to Lindzen. He may be right or wrong but the good part is, the topic of global warming will remain in the news, as both sides continue to publicly spar and debate the underlying causes. Meanwhile I will sit back and continue to reap the rewards of investing in big oil and coal.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Jim Cramer

I got an email from Jim the Meister Cramer, and it was not pretty. It seems he was upset with my article about him being an entertainer and not a real stock picker. Well, in defense of my article, he is an entertainer and soon as he changes his cable show antics to a real pick-em presentation, he will continue to compete with re-runs of Hee-Haw and Green Acres. I re-submit the article again.

Everyone is bashing Jimbo, Jimbo Meister, Jimbalaya, the Jimstone. Why is everyone on his case? The poor guy is a hedgehog turned entertainer. He's not Briteny Spears. He wears underwear and will prove it if asked. His show Mad Money is Heckle and Jeckle on rocket fuel. And his stock picks aint bad.

From Stephen Colbert's Bears and Balls, "Jim Cramer can eat it!". Come on Stephan don't candy coat it.

Over 275 web search results under "why I hate Jim Cramer".

1 under "Why I love myself by Jim Cramer".

18 million bloggers use Jim's picks as their main theme. Well, it seems that many.

Haggar's slack sales have almost doubled since Mad Money.

Hey, I like the guy myself. And how many of you out there watch his show with a notepad in hand? Give the guy a break. Write more about Britney. Her stock picks like Nikki or Under Armour Pants.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Market Trends

This is a graph from Marketocracy.com. The orange line is my 2 year progress starting with 1 million dollars. The lines below are the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW, and the Top 100 investors on the 75,000 member site. 1.7 Million dollar profit in 2 years or 176.8 % increase.

This gain was achieved with over 20 stocks I have held for a minimum of 1 year each. The stock market follows certain trends that extend their impact over 6-24 months. Many years ago, when buggy whips were the trend, this time frame was 3-6 years. This trending time frame has contracted over the years and soon will be measured in days not months. When the trending line reaches days, you or I will not have the intelligence to react correctly and will need software such as hedge funds use today.

I have tracked the trending lines in the market relative to the doubling of computer intelligence, which has moved from 18 months to 11 months, and the market is 30% behind, but it still is a significant factor affecting buying/selling decisions.

Wednesday, 18 April, I will List the stocks I presently own in my portfolio which has returned 80% a year. I was reluctant to do this, due to trending changes, but felt the time was right if I were to be diligent with updates. Presently I am still in the top 1% in the CNB Stock Contest. However this contest is really a crap shoot. See earlier comments.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Consequences To Using Alternative Energy

We are currently facing a transition that has monumental consequences. The transition to energy independence by the US, in part by alternative sources, is not an easily plotted path. It is a myriad of paths that crisscross environmental, economic, political, technical and foreign relations issues. The consequences will be determined by our stewardship, our ability to navigate amongst these issues. Like a bellow stoking the fire, this transition will be marked by periods of vacuum and high pressures.

Renewable energy has been used by man since the beginning. Simply choosing the right color of fur to don in winter, baking brick in the sun, or draining lowland water with wind power, its use has always been a means to achieve safety and comfort. Oil brought up from its pool of fossil decay became the alternative. As time passed, oil was the usual contender and renewable sources surrendered, to dwell as a primitive commodity.

As this nation expanded and brought forth fertile land spurred by technology and fossil fuel products, it was considered a good thing. Each farmer increased his domain, fuel powered his machines, natural gas was the foundation for better fertilizer and more people were fed. We well could have begun an alternative fuel revolution back then. Popular acceptance would have been slim, but the consequences of such a move would for the most part have been positive. However, today is a completely different situation.

First, we must look beyond our borders. What forces has oil put upon our foreign relations and foreign policy? Should our attention be diverted from the fact that we will be dependent on oil for a long time? Do we stop oil exploration, start competing with emerging markets, and continue to receive oil from intensely unstable areas of the world?

Inside our borders, what effect will harnessing food sources and diverting them to ethanol plants have? Whose backyard will bear the unsightly swath of wind generators? How much money do we spend? Who gets it? What if you can but your neighbor cannot afford a new car powered by alternative fuels? What are the investment opportunities? What if I invest and it goes the way of the buggy whip?

These are only a few questions. We need proper leadership to help us through this inevitable transition. We the people need as much information as possible so that we don't fall to superior guidance with inferior motives or thoughtful guidance with lack of breadth. The consequences will be monumental. I hope they will be recorded in history as a monumental triumph.

Sunday, April 1, 2007

CNBC Stock Picking Contest

Well, what an advertising dubb. CNBC is making a fortune off their hits on their stock picking contest site. This contest has the same credibility as a Cow-Pie throwing event.

I have moved up from #1467 to #1337. Wow, I am in the top 1%.

As I blogged earlier, the whole thing is about volatility. I have been trading LVLT and KRY on MACD trends. My personal account mimics my CNBC account and is up 47% over 4 weeks although on a smaller scale. (way smaller)

The bottom line, if your a lotto ticket buyer, the winner walks on water, throws nickels and gets back quarters. Don't think for a moment the winner knows squat about trading.

But*** If I win I will tell you I know Squat! Ha Ha