Thursday, March 15, 2007

Goofy Head Fails With Topps

Eisner, aka goofy head, has failed for the moment to buy Topps, the sport card company. His bid has shareholders seeing red. How dare him? This company has 80+ million in cash and Eisner has seen the bottom line. I think Eisner is looking for a quick buck. If he buys the company, what is he going to do to raise sales, put Cinderella in the batting cage? I agree with shareholders on this one. This guy has a failing TV hosted program and little insight into the real world of sales. Let Topps remain as is and get Eisner a real job! Corporate Raiding is so 1990ish.

Peabody Will Win Big!

This summer will be the hottest on record. So how does making btu from coal factor in? The summer months in Texas and other southern states will be downright hot! All those A/Cs will be powered by coal. That's right, coal from Peabody Energy (BTU). Ever seen those coal trains arriving in San Antonio? They are almost 1 Billion miles long and never ending. Those electric plants powering air conditioners burn coal. My bet is on (BTU) and you can keep the juice.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

The Market Is Suffering From Hypoxia

Remember the scene from "An Officer And A gentleman", where Richard Gere is in the altitude chamber with his oxygen mask off at a simulated high altitude? Things get silly and confusing. Counting from 1 to 10 is almost impossible. This confusion is brought on by an oxygen deficiency called hypoxia. All military and commercial pilots are trained to recognize the symptoms, and will automatically don a mask if not already wearing and gang load their O2 system, that is, O2 100% with positive force and no ambient air. Well, the stock market is flying with no cabin pressure and no oxygen mask.

The market is downright silly! It can't count from 1 to 10 and is laughing at its own situation. Without any oxygen at its current altitude, it only has ONE OPTION. That, and my counterparts of the airways will confirm, is to drop the nose, get low and dirty. The market needs a major correction near term. Also, don't forget the power of seven. I won't get into this lengthy explanation, but years ending in seven have had many bad outcomes for the market. 1927-1987-1997

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are due for a major correction. Please see my past articles on this subject as well as contrarian options for the average investor. Don't bail out although. Cash is not king these days. The best bet is to shift assets into materials and energy, and not the fluff stuff, but big oil and rocks. I'm not a follower of Howard Ruff, but if he is right 10% of the time, then by this time next year he will have been right 11% of the time. The retail and banking environment will change for the worse, putting us back 20 years. Bartering will come back into fashion. We may not be leaving baskets of fresh fruit on our doctor's doorstep, but close to it.

Crystallex Is Naked

How long will it take for shareholders of Crystallex (KRY), to figure out this company has no clothes? This situation reminds me of 3 Card Monte. No matter what you point at the answer is always the same. The new management is sitting in their tin shack under a few dripping palm trees trying to figure out the next move. The CEO is wiping sweat of his forehead with old stock options. This stock is like a can of rotten tuna fish. Sooner or later someone is going to open the can and stink up the house. It's time to expose the management and its lack of attire.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

CNBC Stock Picking Contest

Many of us have joined the CNBC Stock Picking Contest and I for one, am having a blast. Currently I own nothing, having sold before today's market melt-down. My stats show me in the top 2% with having only traded 3 stocks. I'll let you in on a secret in a sec. This contest is highly trumpeted, (the winner is set in immortality), but is very unrealistic. Who in their right mind would only buy after the market closes and hope the following day is in their favor? Las Vegas Baby! Yes, this is a CRAP shoot. Last years winner only held 1(one) stock. OK, what do you do with a million dollars? You put it on the come line, cause you can't go short.

The secret: Own no more than 2 0r 3 stocks. Buy on momentum and sell when the stock is down within 10 minutes of the market close. You can't sell before the close, but, the smart money reveals its hand near the closing bell. If you sell, you will be holding all cash for the following day. THATS OK! Repeat your momentum buys and most likely you will only participate in 50% of the action. THATS OK! Before you buy 1, 2 or 3 of your highly volatile stocks, go to and look for upward pressure whether it be MACD or Volume analysis. They have a learning center to explain all this.

I am rolling the following three dice in the contest, (KRY, ELN, AVX). My bet is that the winner will have used at least one of these aces or possibly LVLT. There are many, maybe thousands holding Crystallex, (KRY), for the long haul. BAD MOVE! This stock is +/- 15% a day. Play the momentum and sell the closing price/volume. If you hold KRY for the 50% of the time its showing upward pressure, you will have beat 99% of the crowd.

When its all said and done, the winner will be Betsy from Nebraska throwing her golden dart, or one of those research monkeys poking holes in the Wall Street Journal.

Monday, March 12, 2007

Back From Vacation

It was a good month away from the market. I left all to the wind as I was Scuba diving in the gulf off Cozumel. The rewards from ignoring nay-Sayers was a pleasant surprise when I returned to Seattle. The present market trends are positive for basic materials and companies with interests in energy exploration. Don't let the rise in oil lead you to alternative energy sources. They are going to be in a free fall, not because of a lack of interest, but because they can not deliver at a reasonable price. As oil rises, as it should, alternative energy is still the bastard child, seeking a level relative to higher prices, but still tied to heartland harvesters. As the oil threshold rises, the cost of harvesting increases, thus the cost of corn, etal., increases as well. It is a lose-lose scenario.
PEIX is rising on hope lately, don't be swayed by holdouts. Still keep your money in big oil and support activities, even though some are moving to Dubai. The trend until the end of March is Big Oil, Refineries, and Pipelines. Sorry its been so long but I needed a break.