Tuesday, March 13, 2007

CNBC Stock Picking Contest

Many of us have joined the CNBC Stock Picking Contest and I for one, am having a blast. Currently I own nothing, having sold before today's market melt-down. My stats show me in the top 2% with having only traded 3 stocks. I'll let you in on a secret in a sec. This contest is highly trumpeted, (the winner is set in immortality), but is very unrealistic. Who in their right mind would only buy after the market closes and hope the following day is in their favor? Las Vegas Baby! Yes, this is a CRAP shoot. Last years winner only held 1(one) stock. OK, what do you do with a million dollars? You put it on the come line, cause you can't go short.

The secret: Own no more than 2 0r 3 stocks. Buy on momentum and sell when the stock is down within 10 minutes of the market close. You can't sell before the close, but, the smart money reveals its hand near the closing bell. If you sell, you will be holding all cash for the following day. THATS OK! Repeat your momentum buys and most likely you will only participate in 50% of the action. THATS OK! Before you buy 1, 2 or 3 of your highly volatile stocks, go to Stockcharts.com and look for upward pressure whether it be MACD or Volume analysis. They have a learning center to explain all this.

I am rolling the following three dice in the contest, (KRY, ELN, AVX). My bet is that the winner will have used at least one of these aces or possibly LVLT. There are many, maybe thousands holding Crystallex, (KRY), for the long haul. BAD MOVE! This stock is +/- 15% a day. Play the momentum and sell the closing price/volume. If you hold KRY for the 50% of the time its showing upward pressure, you will have beat 99% of the crowd.

When its all said and done, the winner will be Betsy from Nebraska throwing her golden dart, or one of those research monkeys poking holes in the Wall Street Journal.

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